Handling Uncertainties in Large Infrastructure Projects: Westport Case Study

The 2023 NTRO International Technical Conference focused on the topic of “Transport Beyond Certainty”, which delivered an impressive array of knowledge across road, rail, ports and airports to nearly 200 delegates from around the globe. One of the keynote speakers was Patrick Seares, the Managing Director of the Westport program in Western Australia. Patrick’s presentation discussed managing the complexities of a large-scale infrastructure project such as the Westport project (Seares 2023). Based on the presentation and the Westport business case summary (2024), this paper summarises the importance of the Westport project and the strategies employed to manage the inherent uncertainties associated with such a large-scale endeavour.

The Strategic Importance of Westport

The Westport project is the Western Australian (WA) Government’s long-term program to design and deliver new container port facilities at Kwinana, along with integrated road and rail transport corridors. It is a very significant undertaking, involving a comprehensive supply chain redesign for the state and leveraging the unique position of government ownership of the port, rail, road and much of the land.

The objective of the Westport project extends beyond a relocation of a port; it is about creating a future-proof, efficient and sustainable logistics network that can support Western Australia's economic growth for decades to come. The decision to move the port from Fremantle to Kwinana was driven by the need to accommodate future growth and optimise the entire supply chain. Fremantle has served well for over a century, but the increasing demands of modern logistics and the constraints imposed by Fremantle’s location necessitated an alternative solution to container trade in WA.

Container trade in WA accounts for up to $445 billion of state-wide economic activity (Westport 2024). However, it was estimated that the infrastructure limitations at Fremantle will begin impacting the efficiency of container trade as early as the mid-2030s. By 2070, container trade in WA is expected to grow from approximately 857,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) annually today to 2.9 million annually (Westport 2024). Therefore, there is a risk that not having port facilities ready to cope with demand could cost WA’s economy $244 billion by the mid-2070s (Westport 2024), thereby threatening jobs, increasing the costs of everyday household items and risking WA's position as a strategic hub in the region. Fremantle Port faces significant constraints that cannot be solved through major upgrades, necessitating the development of new port facilities that can serve Western Australia’s needs for the next century.

The Westport initiative seeks to enhance Western Australia's trade infrastructure by facilitating the accommodation of larger and more efficient vessels, which Fremantle Port is currently unable to support without significant landside impacts being realised. This project aims to increase the proportion of rail freight from 20% to an estimated 30%, thereby alleviating road congestion and reducing emissions. Additionally, the project is designed to safeguard the marine environment of Cockburn Sound through innovative planning. Furthermore, it is projected to create thousands of jobs during the construction phase and provide substantial skilled employment opportunities once operational, thereby fostering growth within the Kwinana Industrial Area and the Western Trade Coast. Finally, the construction of Westport will free up Fremantle to be transformed into vibrant mixed-use waterfront communities.

By considering the entire supply chain, from the point a container is offloaded from a ship to its final destination, the project aims to eliminate bottlenecks and ensure seamless operations. This includes substantial dredging, the construction of a new terminal, and the development of extensive road and rail freight corridors. The integration of these elements is crucial for maximising the economic and social benefits of the project. The comprehensive planning and rigorous environmental testing underpinning the Westport project demonstrate a pragmatic, long-term approach that will secure and enhance Western Australia’s future.

Uncertainties Facing the Project

Given the scale of this project, there are many uncertainties arising from various factors, each of which needs to be considered and handled appropriately. The following list identifies the factors that introduce uncertainties into the future success of the project.

• Supply chain redesign. The project presents an opportunity to ensure that the entire supply chain and land use are designed as efficiently as possible. The port will be designed and integrated with both road and rail transport networks. Additionally, without the constraint of as highly an urbanised area as Fremantle, Kwinana Industrial Area is already home to working port facilities with easy access to critical supply chain infrastructure. This highlights the importance of governance and policy to ensure that these transport links are not crowded out by urban developments. ‍
• Ecological. Another important aspect is the ecological impact of Westport. The project is located in Coburn Sound, a heavily utilised water body in Western Australia. As such, the project has to consider factors such as seagrass beds, artificial reefs and/or development of new habitats for local marine life. By integrating environmental considerations into the design and planning stages, the project aims to minimise its ecological footprint and ensure long-term sustainability. ‍
• Construction and design. Westport will be a construction project with an enormous scale. This brings to attention its construction requirements, which will also need to be carefully planned. This includes the transport of construction materials to site; whether to use precast and demolition waste; and working with existing infrastructure that may be reaching its end of life. Furthermore, the construction program needs to include key considerations such as key delivery tranches, managing peak demands in the contracting sector to avoid cost escalation and workforce issues, and building supporting infrastructure (such as building roads, freight rail duplication, anchor tow, level crossing removal and empty container parks). Consideration should also be given towards the design itself, with the navigability of large ships in the different channels and swing basins needing to work in different circumstances and extreme weather conditions. ‍
• Efficiency. Efficiency is fundamental and is not measured in traditional transport terms, such as flow or capacity of the road and rail networks. The efficiency for this project considers the financial cost per container across the supply chain, taking into account carbon shadow price. ‍
• Scalability. To ensure that the Westport project leaves a lasting legacy, the project needs to ensure that the port will be able to accommodate the future throughput and ship sizes coming to WA. ‍
• Future climate change. Similarly, considerations should be made to ensure that the port will be resilient to any future climate change uncertainties, such as heat, bushfire or sea level rise. ‍
• Future developments and technology. The project should also forecast the possible evolution in fuels and technology, to ensure the design can accommodate such developments. ‍
• Social. The project team identified that community engagement is important to ensure that their voices and concerns are accounted for. Community support is crucial for any infrastructure project to be considered a success, in addition to the engineering and the environmental work.

Approaches to Handling the Uncertainties

The three approaches used by the project team to handle these uncertainties are: (i) modelling and planning; (ii) stakeholder engagements; and (iii) whole of government approach. The effort required for undertaking each task extends beyond traditional infrastructure projects and spans several years.

The modelling done as part of the planning process is multi-faceted and requires extensive effort to complete. It has three components: one focusing on transport and trade modelling; another on marine science; and a simulation of port operations. The transport modelling considers an integrated supply chain network, considering road and rail corridors, intermodal terminals, empty container parks and complementary land use for freight activities. Secondly, the project has put in $13.5 million, leveraged up to $20 million, for comprehensive marine studies (Westport 2024). The studies are taken as part of a three-year partnership with the Western Australian Marine Science Institution, with around 150 researchers working across 33 projects. These studies are not just to understand the condition of Coburn Sound but also to understand the full modelling of flushing, hydrodynamics and the impact of the project’s footprint on animal behaviour; as well as the approach to regrow seagrass beds, using dredge spoil to create artificial reefs, creating habitats and updating baselines of benthic habitat and habitat function in the area. There is also significant work on waves and their implications for port design. Thirdly, port operations have been studied in simulations, including simulating vessel movements through the channels under different conditions, modelling wave data and analysing downtime, and forecasting the number of containers and ships in the future.

The modelling is complemented using AI and optimisation applied to the components of the supply chain, as well as consideration for future technologies such as automated individual rail wagons, zero emission and platooning vehicles.

Engaging with stakeholders, including community members, industry operators and government agencies, is essential for managing uncertainty. The project team has conducted over 1000 hours of engagement with various stakeholders to ensure that the project meets their needs and expectations (Westport 2024). This collaborative approach helps to build trust and support for the project, reducing the risk of opposition and delays. Furthermore, a significant component of the consultation is to engage with the local Aboriginal communities and the broader public. The project team has worked closely with 140 local Aboriginal people, electing 10 leaders and elders to guide the planning process (Westport 2024). This collaboration ensures that the project respects and incorporates the cultural and environmental values of the local communities. The effort spent on the stakeholder engagement of the project is reflected in the comprehensive list of social action proposed in the Westport Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Action Plan (Westport n.d.)

Finally, the project is engaging and consulting with a wide range of state government departments and authorities to ensure alignment with their programs and priorities (Westport 2024). Program partners include: Department of Jobs, Science, Tourism and Innovation; Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development; Fremantle Port Authority; Public Transport Authority; Department of Transport Maritime team; Department of Water and Environmental Regulation; DevelopmentWA; Department of Transport Freight, Ports, Aviation and Reform team; Department of Planning, Lands and Heritage; and Main Roads Western Australia. Additionally, the program is advised by: Department of Treasury; Department of Premier and Cabinet; utilities including Synergy, WaterCorp and Western Power; Western Australian Treasury Corporation; and Infrastructure WA.

Closing Remark

The Westport project is a landmark initiative with the potential to transform Western Australia's logistics network and drive economic growth for decades to come. Its importance lies not only in the infrastructure it will create but also in the comprehensive, integrated approach to planning and development. By addressing environmental, social and technological considerations, the project aims to deliver a sustainable and resilient supply chain. Since the keynote presentation, there has been significant progress made in the past 17 months towards achieving this goal, the details of which can be found in the Westport website (https://westport.wa.gov.au/).

Handling the uncertainties associated with such a large-scale project requires a proactive, flexible and collaborative approach. Through comprehensive planning, technological integration, stakeholder engagement, and a strong commitment to environmental and social responsibility, the Westport project is well-positioned to navigate the challenges ahead and achieve its ambitious goals.